{"id":439934,"date":"2026-04-22T18:03:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T16:03:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/?p=439934"},"modified":"2026-04-22T18:03:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T16:03:05","slug":"prediction-physicien-prix-nobel-relance-debats-fin-humanite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/nobel-prize-physicist-prediction-renewed-debates-on-the-end-of-humanity-439934","title":{"rendered":"A prediction from a Nobel Prize-winning physicist reignites the debate on the end of humanity."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Physicist and Nobel laureate David Gross has reignited a sensitive debate about the global risks facing humanity. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.livescience.com\/space\/cosmology\/the-chances-of-you-living-50-years-are-very-small-theoretical-physicist-explains-why-humanity-likely-wont-survive-to-see-all-the-forces-unified\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">In an interview with Live Science<\/a> , he discusses a statistical estimate of nuclear danger and its long-term implications. His analysis is not based on prophecy, but on a probabilistic calculation applied to current international tensions.<\/p>\n<h2> An estimated 2% annual risk of nuclear disaster<\/h2>\n<p> David Gross offers a striking estimate: approximately a 2% annual probability of nuclear war, or a &quot;one in 50 chance each year.&quot; He explains in detail:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> \u201cThere was an estimate there was a 1% chance of nuclear war every year\u2026 I feel it&#39;s not a rigorous estimate that the chances are more likely 2%. So that&#39;s a 1-in-50 chance every year. The expected lifetime, in the case of 2% per year, is about 35 years\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p> In French: <em>&quot;The probability of a nuclear war each year was estimated at 1%... I think it&#39;s less rigorous to estimate this probability at 2%, or one chance in 50 per year. The projected lifespan, with a rate of 2% per year, is approximately 35 years.&quot;<\/em> In other words, if this level of risk remained constant, it would become significant over a few decades.<\/p>\n<h2> A statistical conclusion: approximately 35 years in this scenario<\/h2>\n<p> From this model, the physicist deduces a life expectancy of approximately 35 years for humanity in this theoretical scenario. This is not a predicted end date, but a mathematical result based on an accumulation of annual probabilities. This projection aims to illustrate the seriousness of a low but recurring risk over time.<\/p>\n<h2> Multiple threats beyond nuclear power<\/h2>\n<p> In his reasoning, David Gross does not limit himself to nuclear power. He also mentions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> the weakening of international arms control agreements<\/li>\n<li> the rise in geopolitical tensions<\/li>\n<li> and the risks associated with advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> According to him, these combined factors would increase overall instability.<\/p>\n<h2> A controversial model within the scientific community<\/h2>\n<p> While this type of calculation attracts attention, it remains a subject of debate. Many scientists point out that it is a theoretical risk model, dependent on assumptions that are difficult to measure precisely. These estimates serve more to illustrate orders of magnitude than to predict an actual timeframe.<\/p>\n<p>In summary, by suggesting a risk of 2% per year and a projection of approximately 35 years in this scenario, David Gross is not giving a date for the end of humanity, but rather warning of an accumulation of global risks. His analysis primarily highlights a central idea: even if small in isolation, certain dangers become significant when they persist over time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Physicist and Nobel laureate David Gross has reignited a sensitive debate about the global risks facing humanity. In...","protected":false},"author":8389,"featured_media":439935,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"disable_msn":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5678],"tags":[97759],"class_list":["post-439934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-societe","tag-news"],"image":{"medium":["https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Johannes-Plenio-_-Pexels-200x113.jpg",200,113,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Johannes-Plenio-_-Pexels-500x281.jpg",500,281,true]},"custom":{"td_video":"","featured_image":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Johannes-Plenio-_-Pexels.jpg","author":{"name":"Soraya","avatar":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/cropped-Soraya-96x96.png"},"categories":[{"term_id":5678,"name":"Society","slug":"societe","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":5846,"taxonomy":"category","description":"<p>The Society section of The Body Optimist unpacks the debates that shape women\u2019s lives: equality, discrimination, beauty standards, social ties and the place of bodies in public space. Its analysis, first-person stories and practical advice are for anyone who wants to understand the pressures of everyday life and push back, with an inclusive, body-positive and judgment-free perspective.<\/p>\n<h2>What you\u2019ll find in the Society section<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Feminism<\/strong>: everyday sexism, gender-based violence, work, the domestic load and women\u2019s rights around the world, all gathered in our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/feminisme\">Feminism<\/a> section.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fatphobia<\/strong>: discrimination against fat people at work, at the doctor\u2019s office and in the media, and ways to stand up to it, in our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/grossophobie\">Fatphobia<\/a> section.<\/li>\n<li><strong>LGBTQIA+<\/strong>: sexual orientation, gender identity, coming out and the fight against homophobia and transphobia, explained in our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/lgbtqia\">LGBTQIA+<\/a> section.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Beauty standards<\/strong>: where physical ideals come from, how they vary across countries and eras, and what they cost women.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Relationships and social ties<\/strong>: friendship, loneliness, bonds between generations and new ways of living together.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Women who break stereotypes<\/strong>: women making their mark in mechanics, science, sports or on stage, like the physicist <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/sabrina-gonzalez-pasterski-a-young-physicist-could-revolutionize-science-432830\">Sabrina Gonzalez Pasterski<\/a>, in fields where few expected them.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Why are beauty standards a social issue?<\/h2>\n<p>Beauty standards are a social issue because they are neither natural nor universal: they shift from one country to another and from one era to the next, as our article on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/heres-how-beauty-standards-change-in-different-countries-429750\">how beauty standards differ around the world<\/a> shows. Yet these ideals of thinness, youth and flawless skin have very real effects: comments starting in childhood, pressure to watch your weight, unequal treatment at work and in health care, online harassment. Recognizing that a norm is constructed helps you take a step back, spot the messages designed to make you feel guilty and choose what you want to keep. That is the common thread of this section: connecting individual experiences to the collective mechanisms that produce them.<\/p>\n<h2>What can you do about discrimination or online harassment?<\/h2>\n<p>If you experience discrimination or online harassment, the first step is to keep evidence, then to turn to the right people, who will depend on the country you live in:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Save screenshots, messages, dates and the names of any witnesses.<\/li>\n<li>For discrimination in hiring, housing or access to a service, contact the equality or human rights agency in your country, a union or a lawyer.<\/li>\n<li>For illegal content online, report it to the platform and to the authorities in your country.<\/li>\n<li>If you have been threatened or targeted by a crime, you can file a report with the police.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Our approach: connecting the personal and the collective<\/h2>\n<p>Born from a plus-size fashion site, our magazine looks at social issues through the lens of the body and representation. We give a voice to the people most affected, we explain the words before debating them (sexism, fatphobia, trans identity, consent) and we favor practical ways forward over outrage alone. Our articles start from everyday experiences to shed light on broader patterns, without moralizing or pitting women against each other.<\/p>\n<h2>Articles to start with<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/grossophobie\/fatphobic-remarks-surely-said-without-knowing-430954\">fatphobic phrases many people say without realizing it<\/a>, and what they really imply.<\/li>\n<li>A look at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/would-you-be-considered-the-norm-elsewhere-here-are-average-sizes-and-weights-in-the-world-429930\">average heights and weights around the world<\/a>, a useful reminder that \u201cnormal\u201d depends on where you live.<\/li>\n<li>What to do when <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/what-to-do-when-a-colleague-appropriates-an-idea-at-work-447182\">a coworker takes credit for your idea<\/a> at work.<\/li>\n<li>How to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/how-to-set-boundaries-in-the-face-of-unsolicited-advances-at-work-447161\">set boundaries with unwanted advances at work<\/a>, calmly and clearly.<\/li>\n<li>Whether women still <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/womens-work-applying-makeup-to-look-professional-446904\">have to wear makeup to look \u201cprofessional\u201d<\/a>, and what that expectation says about workplace norms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Frequently asked questions<\/h2>\n<h3>What counts as discrimination?<\/h3>\n<p>Discrimination is unequal treatment based on a characteristic protected by law, in a specific area such as employment, housing or access to goods and services. Protected grounds vary from country to country, but they often include sex, race or ethnic origin, disability, age, religion, sexual orientation and gender identity. Some places also protect physical appearance or weight.<\/p>\n<h3>What is intersectionality?<\/h3>\n<p>Intersectionality describes how several forms of discrimination can overlap in the same person and reinforce one another. The American legal scholar Kimberl\u00e9 Crenshaw coined the term to describe the experiences of Black women. A woman who is both fat and lesbian, for example, may face sexism, fatphobia and homophobia, which compound one another rather than simply adding up.<\/p>\n<h3>What is diet culture?<\/h3>\n<p>Diet culture is the set of beliefs that equates thinness with health, success and personal worth. It shows up in foods labeled \u201cgood\u201d or \u201cbad,\u201d compliments on weight loss and the shaming of fat bodies. Our magazine prefers a weight-inclusive approach to health, at every size.<\/p>\n<p>Want to go further? Our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/culture\">Culture<\/a> section explores how bodies and identities are portrayed in movies, TV shows and books, and our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/psycho\">Psychology<\/a> section supports you with self-image, confidence and emotions.<\/p>","parent":0,"count":1539,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":5678,"category_count":1539,"category_description":"<p>The Society section of The Body Optimist unpacks the debates that shape women\u2019s lives: equality, discrimination, beauty standards, social ties and the place of bodies in public space. Its analysis, first-person stories and practical advice are for anyone who wants to understand the pressures of everyday life and push back, with an inclusive, body-positive and judgment-free perspective.<\/p>\n<h2>What you\u2019ll find in the Society section<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Feminism<\/strong>: everyday sexism, gender-based violence, work, the domestic load and women\u2019s rights around the world, all gathered in our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/feminisme\">Feminism<\/a> section.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fatphobia<\/strong>: discrimination against fat people at work, at the doctor\u2019s office and in the media, and ways to stand up to it, in our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/grossophobie\">Fatphobia<\/a> section.<\/li>\n<li><strong>LGBTQIA+<\/strong>: sexual orientation, gender identity, coming out and the fight against homophobia and transphobia, explained in our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/lgbtqia\">LGBTQIA+<\/a> section.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Beauty standards<\/strong>: where physical ideals come from, how they vary across countries and eras, and what they cost women.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Relationships and social ties<\/strong>: friendship, loneliness, bonds between generations and new ways of living together.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Women who break stereotypes<\/strong>: women making their mark in mechanics, science, sports or on stage, like the physicist <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/sabrina-gonzalez-pasterski-a-young-physicist-could-revolutionize-science-432830\">Sabrina Gonzalez Pasterski<\/a>, in fields where few expected them.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Why are beauty standards a social issue?<\/h2>\n<p>Beauty standards are a social issue because they are neither natural nor universal: they shift from one country to another and from one era to the next, as our article on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/heres-how-beauty-standards-change-in-different-countries-429750\">how beauty standards differ around the world<\/a> shows. Yet these ideals of thinness, youth and flawless skin have very real effects: comments starting in childhood, pressure to watch your weight, unequal treatment at work and in health care, online harassment. Recognizing that a norm is constructed helps you take a step back, spot the messages designed to make you feel guilty and choose what you want to keep. That is the common thread of this section: connecting individual experiences to the collective mechanisms that produce them.<\/p>\n<h2>What can you do about discrimination or online harassment?<\/h2>\n<p>If you experience discrimination or online harassment, the first step is to keep evidence, then to turn to the right people, who will depend on the country you live in:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Save screenshots, messages, dates and the names of any witnesses.<\/li>\n<li>For discrimination in hiring, housing or access to a service, contact the equality or human rights agency in your country, a union or a lawyer.<\/li>\n<li>For illegal content online, report it to the platform and to the authorities in your country.<\/li>\n<li>If you have been threatened or targeted by a crime, you can file a report with the police.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Our approach: connecting the personal and the collective<\/h2>\n<p>Born from a plus-size fashion site, our magazine looks at social issues through the lens of the body and representation. We give a voice to the people most affected, we explain the words before debating them (sexism, fatphobia, trans identity, consent) and we favor practical ways forward over outrage alone. Our articles start from everyday experiences to shed light on broader patterns, without moralizing or pitting women against each other.<\/p>\n<h2>Articles to start with<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/grossophobie\/fatphobic-remarks-surely-said-without-knowing-430954\">fatphobic phrases many people say without realizing it<\/a>, and what they really imply.<\/li>\n<li>A look at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/would-you-be-considered-the-norm-elsewhere-here-are-average-sizes-and-weights-in-the-world-429930\">average heights and weights around the world<\/a>, a useful reminder that \u201cnormal\u201d depends on where you live.<\/li>\n<li>What to do when <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/what-to-do-when-a-colleague-appropriates-an-idea-at-work-447182\">a coworker takes credit for your idea<\/a> at work.<\/li>\n<li>How to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/how-to-set-boundaries-in-the-face-of-unsolicited-advances-at-work-447161\">set boundaries with unwanted advances at work<\/a>, calmly and clearly.<\/li>\n<li>Whether women still <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/societe\/womens-work-applying-makeup-to-look-professional-446904\">have to wear makeup to look \u201cprofessional\u201d<\/a>, and what that expectation says about workplace norms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Frequently asked questions<\/h2>\n<h3>What counts as discrimination?<\/h3>\n<p>Discrimination is unequal treatment based on a characteristic protected by law, in a specific area such as employment, housing or access to goods and services. Protected grounds vary from country to country, but they often include sex, race or ethnic origin, disability, age, religion, sexual orientation and gender identity. Some places also protect physical appearance or weight.<\/p>\n<h3>What is intersectionality?<\/h3>\n<p>Intersectionality describes how several forms of discrimination can overlap in the same person and reinforce one another. The American legal scholar Kimberl\u00e9 Crenshaw coined the term to describe the experiences of Black women. A woman who is both fat and lesbian, for example, may face sexism, fatphobia and homophobia, which compound one another rather than simply adding up.<\/p>\n<h3>What is diet culture?<\/h3>\n<p>Diet culture is the set of beliefs that equates thinness with health, success and personal worth. It shows up in foods labeled \u201cgood\u201d or \u201cbad,\u201d compliments on weight loss and the shaming of fat bodies. Our magazine prefers a weight-inclusive approach to health, at every size.<\/p>\n<p>Want to go further? Our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/culture\">Culture<\/a> section explores how bodies and identities are portrayed in movies, TV shows and books, and our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/psycho\">Psychology<\/a> section supports you with self-image, confidence and emotions.<\/p>","cat_name":"Society","category_nicename":"societe","category_parent":0}]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439934","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8389"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439934"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439934\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":439976,"href":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439934\/revisions\/439976"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/439935"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439934"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439934"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ma-grande-taille.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439934"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}