Forty-five years after imposing a drastic birth control policy on the country, China now faces an unprecedented challenge: too few children. Beijing, aware of the demographic imbalance that threatens its growth and social stability, is multiplying initiatives to encourage births. This about-face, however, seems rather belated and is struggling to convince a population profoundly transformed by decades of strict birth control.
From overpopulation to the fear of demographic decline
When the one-child policy was introduced in 1980, China was just emerging from a period of famine and economic instability. The government of Deng Xiaoping, anxious to avoid a population explosion, justified this measure as "a necessary step towards modernization." Families were then only allowed to have one child, under penalty of fines, administrative sanctions, or even job loss.
This policy was based on the analyses of engineer Song Jian, inspired by the Club of Rome's report, *The Limits to Growth* . According to his projections, China risked reaching an unsustainable population in the long term. Beijing therefore chose to plan births as one would manage an economic resource.
Initially, this strategy paid off: population growth collapsed and prosperity took hold. However, behind this apparent success lay deep imbalances – accelerated aging, gender imbalance, and a long-term slowdown in the working-age population.
The serious consequences of birth control
The effects of the one-child policy on Chinese society are considerable. Millions of "non-quota" children were hidden to avoid penalties, living without documents or access to education or healthcare. At the same time, the traditional preference for boys has led to widespread sex-selective abortions: the number of so-called "surplus" men is now estimated at nearly 30 million.
Starting in the 2000s, Chinese demographers realized the scale of the disaster. The country was aging faster than expected, and its working-age population was declining. In 2013, Beijing began to relax the policy, first by allowing two children, then three from 2021. The damage, however, was done: according to the National Bureau of Statistics , 2023 already marked the second consecutive year of population decline, a first since the great famine of 1960.
A birth rate that is difficult to revive.
Today, the Chinese government is attempting to rewrite the national narrative around the family. In early December 2025, a 13% tax on contraceptives and other birth control methods was announced, while tax breaks, housing assistance, and childcare subsidies are being offered. Several provinces are testing local policies: extended parental leave, birth bonuses, and subsidized housing for large families.
These measures, however, have only a limited impact. Newer generations, raised with the idea that one child is enough, are unwilling to give up their material comfort or professional freedom. Women, more educated and independent than ever, often refuse to take on the burdens of motherhood, which they consider too expensive. The cost of living, the pressure of raising children, and professional inequalities also explain this reluctance to expand families.
An uncertain demographic future
Despite its efforts, China is failing to reverse the trend. The fertility rate, projected to fall to around 1.0 child per woman by 2025 , is well below the replacement level. The country is entering a phase of "reverse demographic transition": fewer births, more retirees, and an economy at risk of labor and innovation shortages.
Some experts are now comparing China's situation to that of Japan or South Korea, which face similar birth rate challenges, but with an even steeper decline. Beijing will likely need to go beyond simple financial incentives to solve this structural problem: rethinking the social model, genuinely supporting families, and working on the collective perception of parenthood.
From fears of overpopulation to fears of decline, China has experienced two demographic extremes in half a century. The one-child policy, an instrument of rapid modernization, ultimately laid the groundwork for a lasting contraction in the birth rate. Today, despite increasingly insistent pro-natalist policies, the gap between political will and societal reality is widening.
